Analyzing Connecticut’s 2026 Midterm Results
Note: Results are preliminary, as not all town results are fully published. Data was pulled from the Connecticut Secretary of the State elections portal in the morning of 11/5/26. We will update when more data becomes available.
On Election Day, November 3, 2026, the people of the state of Connecticut voted to choose their governor, their 5 U.S. Congress representatives, and all seats in the Connecticut State Senate and House of Representatives. We analyzed preliminary data on the results of these races as well as on voter turnout.
Governor’s Race
Ned Lamont has been declared the winner of the 2026 Connecticut governor’s race, beating Ryan Fazio with a margin of victory of almost 19 percentage points. Since Lamont’s win in 2018, where he beat Bob Stefanowski by 3 percentage points, Lamont’s margins of victory have steadily gone up since then, more than quadrupling in 2022 and then increasing by 6 percentage points in this year’s election. So far, Lamont won in 113 of the state’s 169 towns, flipping 19 towns from Republican to Democrat from 2022’s election, while Fazio did not flip any towns. The map below shows the town breakdown of Lamont’s win, while the chart shows the towns won by Ned Lamont in the 2018, 2022, and 2026 elections.
Congressional Race
Because members of the U.S. House of Representatives are elected every two years, results of these races show how Connecticut voter preferences changed between 2024 and 2026. Connecticut elected the Democratic candidate in all five of its US Congressional Districts, as it has for the past several elections. The margin of victory for Democrats, however, has varied over time. For example, in the 5th district, Democrat Jahana Hayes won by less than 1 percentage point in 2022.
In 2026, the Democratic margin of victory was larger in all five districts in 2026 than in any of the three previous elections.
We compared how each town voted in the 2026 and 2024 U.S. House race. Of the 49 towns where the Republican candidate received the most votes in 2024, 26 (53%) voted for the Democratic candidate in 2026. No town that favored the Democratic candidate in 2024 favored the Republican in 2026.
The towns that flipped in their House vote share from majority Republican to majority Democrat are listed here.
Statewide, most towns increased in their vote share toward Democratic House candidates, but not consistently. Larger towns with significant shifts toward the Democratic candidate include Bridgeport, Stamford, Norwalk, Danbury, and New Britain. In contrast, New Haven only shifted 1% toward the Democrat. Durham, Middlefield, and Middlebury are the only towns whose vote share shifted toward Republicans.
Connecticut General Assembly
The Connecticut State Senate and House of Representatives both experienced significant shifts with the outcomes of the 2026 elections. The State Senate stands to have 33 of its 36 seats occupied by the Democratic Party, a historic shift and a flip of 8 republican seats that leaves the Republican Party with only 3 seats. In the State House of Representatives, 14 districts flipped from Republican to Democrat, giving the Democratic Party 116 seats compared to the Republican Party’s 35. The table below shows the change in seat breakdown in each legislative chamber since 2022.
Preliminary Look at Voter Turnout
As of 11/5/26, the Secretary of State’s data portal reports that statewide voter turnout was 55%, but this value may change as more towns’ records are finalized. The average voter turnout among reported towns was 62%. The town with the highest turnout was Lyme, at 76%, and the lowest turnout was Hartford, at 20% (though data from Hartford may not be complete). The map below shows the turnout by town, with darker shading indicating higher voter turnout.
As of 11/5/2026, 34% of Connecticut’s ballots were reported from early voting. This may represent a drop from the rate of 40% in the 2024 presidential election, but this value may also change as more towns’ early voting data are reported.
Early voting is a process which allows eligible voters to cast their ballot in-person before election day. This process began with the 2024 elections in Connecticut following 2023 state legislation (https://www.cga.ct.gov/asp/cgabillstatus/cgabillstatus.asp?selBillType=Bill&which_year=2023&bill_num=5004) that made Connecticut the 47th state to adopt the process. The average percentage of ballots being early by town was 36%. The map below shows the percent of early ballots by town in Connecticut.
