Census 2030 Changes to Watch For
On June 25, 2026, a pending rule from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), an Executive Office (meaning the Office sits in the Executive branch under the President) was posted titled "Decennial Census of the Population of Americans; Proposed Residence Criteria and Proposed Regulations for Demographic Questions."
The wording of the rule still has not been published, so census watchers have pieced together information and believe the OMB may announce:
Changes to the residence criteria to reclassify noncitizens as nonresidents.
Changes to race and ethnicity data collection.
The addition of a citizenship question.
Census in the Constitution
The decennial census is referred to in Article 1 on the powers of Congress (Article I, Section 2), as well as in the 14th Amendment, Section 2.
Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole Number of free Persons, including those bound to Service for a Term of Years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three fifths of all other Persons. The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct.
This was amended by the 14th Amendment, Section 2 to count all people in each state. According to the Census Bureau, before its addition in our Constitution, the purpose of a census was for taxation. Our Constitution added the purpose of ensuring that every resident (though we know: not every resident at the time) of the United States is represented in Congress.
A plain reading of the Constitution suggests the president does not have the authority to alter the wording of the census form, but this does not mean the effort will be unsuccessful or benign even if these changes are not implemented. (While there was a Supreme Court case about proposed changes to the 2020 Census, the decision was not regarding whether the Executive Branch could make changes to the census.)
Impact on Census Quality
We know from research published in 2024 by the US Census Bureau that a citizenship question reduces the accuracy of the census overall, with a -.5% change in self-response (US Census Bureau). Should a citizenship question be added, it will cost more. Self-response is the most cost-effective method of collecting census data, and if self-response is reduced, the Census Bureau will have to resort to in-person enumeration or other methods to ensure each household is counted.
The Association of Public Data Users coordinated a Rapid Response Data Briefing on this topic, which can be seen in this video.
We will provide more information as it becomes available.
Other Noteworthy Data News
Right-Leaning Think Tank Authors Report Published as Official Census Bureau Report: Census watchers were alarmed on August 18 when an unauthored report was published as an official US Census Bureau report, suggesting that the bureau conducted research using administrative and linked data to identify noncitizens voting in the 2020 election. Reporting by Hansi Lo Wang and Jude Joffe-Block ad NPR has identified the report was authored by individuals at the “the America First Policy Institute, a think tank started by officials from Trump's first administration,” not by professional statisticians at the US Census Bureau, as is customary. This is a new and developing story that we will update as we learn more. The Massive Data Institute published a report on the problems with the methodology behind the report.
More on Changes to Differential Privacy: This week, George Cook, the Deputy Under Secretary in the Office of the Under Secretary for Economic Affairs, performing the non-exclusive functions and duties of the Director of the US Census Bureau, published a post about these changes. APDU and Data Index both have excellent posts about what we know of these changes so far. And here’s a post where we explain what differential privacy is.
Comment on the EEOC removal of reporting: The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission changed rules recently to end the mandatory collection of demographic data of employers with 100 or more employees. The proposed rule is available for comment until August 24.
Track Data that is Changing or Disappearing: Data Index continues to update their Federal Data Terminations Tracker, identifying 38 datasets that have been terminated, and 337 datasets that have had elements removed. This is a helpful resource if you are attempting to use data that you can no longer find and would like to check on the status of the dataset.
How to Get Updates
As the Connecticut Census State Data Center, we will continue to stay on top of census news and share it as it becomes available. You can bookmark our blog or get updates by subscribing to our newsletter and following us on Facebook, and LinkedIn, and Instagram. To learn more about the Census and resources provided by CTData, head to our Census Data Portal. Explore other data sets and analysis at data by topic and data projects. Join us for our conference to connect with other data users, or learn some new data skills at our workshops.