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Connecticut 2024 Election: Analysis Shows Declining Voter Turnout and Shifting Voting Patterns

Voter Turnout Declined, 90% of Towns Saw an Increase in the Share of Votes for Trump, and the Majority of Votes in 14 Towns Shifted From Democratic to Republican

Connecticut’s Secretary of the State has published results for the 2024 presidential election on their data portal. In this analysis, we explore changes in voter turnout and shifts in voting patterns using data from 2016, 2020, and 2024.

The candidates for the Democratic Party and Republican Party for each election are provided below. For this analysis, we will refer to candidates by their last name.

  • 2016: Hillary Clinton (Democratic Party) and Donald Trump (Republican Party)

  • 2020: Joseph Biden (Democratic Party) and Donald Trump (Republican Party)

  • 2024: Kamala Harris (Democratic Party) and Donald Trump (Republican Party)

Important Notes

  • This analysis focuses exclusively on presidential election data and does not include other types of elections, such as primaries, local elections, or other elections.

  • Independent candidates include those who were not a candidate for the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, as well as all write-in candidates.

  • The data used in this report was current as of 12:00 PM EST on November 18, 2024. At the time of download, all towns had reported data, but the results were still marked as unofficial.

  • In this analysis, we measure change with percentage-points. For example, an increase from 10% to 15% is described as a 5 percentage-point increase.


Connecticut Voter Turnout Drops From 80% to 76%, With Bridgeport and East Hartford Seeing Larger Declines of 20 Percentage-Points and 15 Percentage-Points

Voter turnout in Connecticut declined from 80% in 2020 to 76% in 2024, with 73% of towns experiencing a decrease. While towns like North Stonington and North Canaan saw an increase by over 10 percentage-points, Bridgeport’s turnout dropped by 20 percentage-points, falling from 72% in 2020 to just 52% in 2024. East Hartford also saw a significant decline, with turnout dropping 15 percentage-points, from 66% to 51%. Hartford’s turnout has consistently declined over the last three elections, from 63% in 2016, to 50% in 2020, to only 43% in 2024.

Explore data by town with the table to the right and the map below.


While the Majority of Connecticut Voted for Harris in 2024, Her Margin Over Trump Was Lower Than Biden’s in 2020

In 2020, the share of votes going to Biden was 4 percentage-points greater than what Clinton received in 2016, from 55% for Clinton to 59% for Biden. In the same time frame, the share of votes going to Trump decreased by 2 percentage-points, from 41% to 39%.

However, in 2024, the share of votes going to Harris was 3 percentage-points lower than what Biden received in 2020, from 59% for Biden to 56% for Harris. In the same time frame, the share of votes going to Trump increased by 3 percentage-points, from 39% to 42%.

During this period, only 12% of towns saw an increase in the percentage of votes going to the Democratic candidate (Harris), whereas 90% of towns experienced an increase in the percentage of votes going to Trump.

In 2024, the largest decreases in share of votes going to the Democratic candidate (Harris) occurred in some of Connecticut’s more populous towns, including Milford (8 percentage-points), Bridgeport (7 percentage-points), Danbury (6 percentage-points), New Britain (6 percentage-points), and Stamford (6 percentage-points). No towns saw a comparable decline for Trump. Instead, many of these same towns saw the largest gains in support for Trump, such as Bridgeport (7 percentage-points), Willington (6 percentage-points), Danbury (6 percentage-points), New Britain (5 percentage-points), and New Milford (5 percentage-points).

Explore data by town with the table to the right and the map below.


Of the 15 Towns That Flipped From 2020 to 2024, All But One Shifted From Democratic to Republican Majority

In Connecticut, 48% of towns voted majority Democratic in 2016 (Clinton), increasing to 68% in 2020 (Biden), with a drop to 60% in 2024 (Harris).

From 2016 (Clinton) to 2020 (Biden), 34 towns shifted from majority Republican to majority Democratic, with none flipping the other way. However, the trend reversed between 2020 (Biden) and 2024 (Harris), with only the town of Warren flipping from Republican to Democratic, while 14 towns shifted from Democratic to Republican.

Explore data by town with the maps below.

 

For More Information

Learn more about voters in our state on our Get Out the Vote Data page. If you are interested to learn more about CTData, check out what we do and the services we provide. For training and tips on how to use data to inform your personal and professional life, register for one of our CTData Academy workshops or browse our blog. You can keep up with us by subscribing to the CTData newsletter and following us on Instagram, Facebook, and LinkedIn.

Civic Engagement, Town & RegionalJason CheungNovember 19, 2024
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